Three quick questions:

• Do you believe our socio-political reality is primarily shaped by ideas, or material factors?
• Do you think politicians are limited in their choices when introducing public policy?
• Do you believe the libertarian agenda should be advanced through lobbying politicians, or by changing broader public opinion?

A Marxist, or a dialectical materialist, would argue that ideas cannot shape reality, dismissing the notion as bourgeois nonsense. They would assert that reality is shaped by material factors alone — specifically, control over the means of production. 

But the truth is: Ideas undeniably influence the social reality in which we live. Here’s why.

Hayekian theory of social change

After World War II, Great Britain faced a wave of authoritarian and socialist policies. Businessman Sir Antony Fisher asked Friedrich Hayek what he could do to stop it. Hayek advised him not to get involved in politics, but instead to focus on educational institutions, which could shape public opinion. In turn, Hayek thought, public opinion would pressure politicians and their decision-making. As a result of Hayek’s advice, the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) was established in the UK, and the Atlas Network in the USA. 

Ultimately, organizations like Students For Liberty would emerge. Learn more about their mission here: How Students For Liberty will free the world — with a hand from F.A. Hayek.

Hayek’s stance can be understood in his theory of social change, rooted in his Austrian Capital Theory and the Structure of Production (of Goods).

HIGHEST ORDER	->	Mineral resources Land
THIRD ORDER	->	Factories Machines to make machines
SECOND ORDER	->	Factories Machines to make consumer goods Distribution networks
FIRST ORDER	->	Shops Consumer goods

Building on this structure, Hayek also developed the Austrian Theory of the Production and Distribution of Ideas. It begins with the original creators of ideas — figures like Ludwig von Mises, Ayn Rand, Murray Rothbard, Milton Friedman, and others. 

However new ideas are often not immediately popular upon their creation, so the task of popularizing these ideas typically falls to second-hand dealers: intellectuals or cadres.

Motivated by the work of the original thinkers, these intellectuals spread ideas, helping to shape public opinion. Once public opinion shifts — a genuinely complex process — the next phase involves pressuring political elites to make decisions and introduce public policies.

Learn more about another of Hayek’s fascinating ideas: 

Hayek’s point is that politicians are, to a large extent, constrained in their decision-making by public opinion. The logic is straightforward: If politicians disregard public opinion, the likelihood of losing the next election increases. Therefore, shaping public opinion in favor of libertarian ideas becomes crucial for initiating social change.

HIGHEST ORDER	->	Original scholarly works of theory Universities, research institutes
THIRD ORDER	->	Universities, colleges Monographs, journal articles Textbooks
SECOND ORDER	->	Think tanks Public policy documents Legislation
FIRST ORDER	->	Public media: TV, newspapers, internet Election campaigns

Overton Window of Political Possibilities

The Overton Window is a conceptual model that provides a visual framework for understanding how dominant ideas within a society evolve and how they influence public policy. It was created by Joseph P. Overton, who served as a vice-president of Mackinac Center for Public Policy.  

The model is based on the premise that, in contemporary democracies, the political elites and the public policies they introduce are largely determined by public opinion. As such, it is unlikely that a politician would introduce a policy based on ideas that are radical or unacceptable to the broader public. Conversely, it is easier to introduce policies rooted in popular ideas.

Therefore, the Overton Window of Political Possibilities aims to illustrate the ideas that are widely accepted in public opinion and the corresponding public policies that can be expected.

The spectrum of public policies and public opinion

There are various public policies that might be based on a particular idea, and the best way to represent this diversity is through a vertical spectrum. The key indicator among these policies is individual liberty. At the bottom of the spectrum, we find the least free policies, while at the top are the most free policies. A common example is the legal status of cannabis, where public policies can range from extreme to liberal.

At the “least free” end of the spectrum, a policy might state that all cannabis producers, sellers, and users should be punished by death. At the “most free” end, the policy could be that there are no restrictions on cannabis — production, sale, and use are completely free. In the middle, we might find more moderate policies, such as the legalization of medical cannabis, while the production and sale of recreational cannabis remain prohibited.

This range of policies can be visually represented like this:

The second spectrum represents the range of public opinion on certain ideas. It includes five general stances: unthinkable, radical, acceptable, sensible, and popular, with “policy” at the center. The unthinkable occupies the extremes — at the bottom and top of the spectrum — while radical ideas lie just beyond the unthinkable. Acceptable ideas are positioned above and beyond the radical, followed by sensible ideas, and, finally, popular ideas. In the center of the spectrum is “policy,” surrounded by what is considered popular.

The logic is that ideas which are popular in public opinion are typically transformed into public policy. This relationship can be visually represented like this:

Actors of social change

Among the main actors of social change are think tanks, non-profits, university institutions, research institutes, media outlets, business sectors, influential individuals, political parties, and others. All play a role in bringing libertarian ideas into reality.  Depending on whether they are working to shift the Overton Window (shaping public opinion) or influencing politicians to adopt ideas within the window (lobbying), they can be distinguished as:

• Popularizers – These actors are not primarily concerned with what is currently possible but instead focus on educating the public on radical ideas, aiming to shift the Overton Window.
• Influencers – These actors work within the existing Overton Window, with the goal of pressuring political elites to adopt changes in public policy. 
• Mobilizers – These actors concentrate on specific topics, aiming to mobilize civil activism around those issues. They work within the existing Overton Window to foster public engagement and action.
• Builders – These actors focus on strengthening the movement, with a primary concern of shifting the Overton Window to make more radical ideas acceptable.

Ask yourself: Which one are you? Which one would you like to be?

Why the Overton Window is important for libertarians

Understanding the Overton Window helps libertarians when …

• Strategizing for Social Change: It allows them to develop a clear strategy for advancing social change within their communities.
• Tracking Public Opinion: It helps in monitoring how public opinion shifts on specific ideas, providing insight into what is gaining traction.
• Assessing Public Policy Change: It enables actors to assess the current capacity for change in public policy, identifying which policies are more likely to be implemented.
• Defining Their Role: It helps them determine their primary roles — whether they aim to shift the Overton Window or pressure political elites for change within the existing window.
• Turning the Impossible into the Inevitable: The Overton Window is crucial for understanding what social change is, what is politically possible, and what is inevitable. This allows actors to work toward turning the impossible into the inevitable, gradually making radical ideas mainstream and politically viable.

And if you’d like to start working toward making libertarian ideas mainstream, consider coming to LIBERTYCON INTERNATIONAL; its theme for 2025 is: From Impossible to Inevitable.

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This piece solely expresses the opinion of the author and not necessarily the organization as a whole. Students For Liberty is committed to facilitating a broad dialogue for liberty, representing a variety of opinions.